Apple's holiday not looking great, could be worse
Even Apple may not be immune if consumers continue to sit on their wallets this holiday season.Piper Jaffray, usually able to find the bright side of any Apple news, predicted Monday that iPhone and iPod sales are set to decline in the coming weeks amid what is expected to be the worst holiday season for the PC and consumer electronics industries in quite some time. Mac sales seem healthier thanks to Apple's latest crop of notebooks, but aren't growing as fast as they were last year. News.com PollPiper based its outlook on surveys it performed inside Apple retail stores around the U.S. during a 25-hour period in November, counting the number of Macs and iPhones sold inside each store. It supplemented those expectations with data from market watcher NPD for sales of both the Mac and iPod for the month of October.With $24 billion in the bank, no debt, and products that still appear popular with the public, Apple is in excellent shape to ride out what is expected to be a rough couple of quarters for companies that depend on consumer spending. The company's several-year run of double-digit percentage increases in revenue and profit may be coming to an end, however, as most such runs eventually do.Let's take a look at the numbers:iPhonePiper's data suggests that Apple will sell 6.4 million iPhones during the September to December quarter--Apple's first fiscal quarter--compared with the last quarter, when the company blew away expectations by selling 6.9 million units. The handset market in general tends to enjoy a 15 percent sequential boost in the holiday quarter compared with the June-September quarter, though this won't go down as a typical holiday season.Apple retail stores were each selling on average 98 iPhones a day in July, when the iPhone 3G was released. In November they were only selling around 28 per store, which looks like a 71 percent decline and helps explain reports that Apple was cutting iPhone production heading into the current quarter.However, those numbers don't tell the whole story, according to Piper. There was obviously pent-up demand for the iPhone 3G following a quarter in which Apple was sold out of iPhones for almost six weeks. And Piper also notes that Apple's retail stores are not the only place to find iPhones this quarter. AT&T obviously sells a few, and Apple added Best Buy as a distributor during the quarter.When you factor in the increased number of countries selling the iPhone this quarter as well, Piper only expects a decline of 8 percent. Not that that's good news for Apple, of course, given how important the iPhone has become to its finances.MacApple can take comfort in the fact that the Mac numbers don't appear to be cratering, according to Piper's numbers. Piper is predicting that 2.6 million Macs will be sold during the quarter, which would be flat compared with last quarter's totals.Last year in a healthier economy, Mac shipments increased by 7 percent in the first fiscal quarter compared with the fourth, so this year's totals are a bit off but still growing at a solid pace year-over-year. If Apple sells 2.6 million Macs during the holiday quarter, that would be a 13 percent improvement over the 2.3 million Macs shipped during the year-ago period.On the last Apple earnings call, COO Tim Cook said he thought Mac sales were a little weaker than expected during the July to September quarter because potential buyers delayed their purchases of new notebooks, knowing that new models were around the corner. NPD's data seems to suggest that theory was on track following the launch of the redesigned MacBooks, recording a 28 percent jump in Mac sales in October compared with October 2007.Still, Piper expects Mac demand to slow down in November and December. No new models are expected between now and Macworld in January, and the rush of buyers who upgraded in October are likely done buying Macs for a while.iPodApple's best-selling product looks set to take a hit during the quarter, which is traditionally a blowout quarter for the iPod division. Shipments are expected to decline about 15 percent compared with last year's holiday quarter, coming in between 18.5 million units and 19 million units this time around.There's no way to know at this point whether that is a reaction to Apple's latest crop of iPods unveiled in September or another symptom of an economic slowdown. A key number to watch will be the revenue growth or decline associated with the iPod group: Apple has been heavily advertising the iPod Touch as the "funnest ever" (and currently most expensive) iPod, and if revenue growth comes in slightly down or even flat against a 15 percent decline in unit shipments, the upselling strategy is probably working.Competitive outlookApple's competitors aren't expected to fare much better during the quarter. Intel may not be a bellwether for tech anymore, but it is most certainly a bellwether for PC demand, and the $1 billion shortfall between Intel's previously expected fourth-quarter revenue and what it now expects indicates that the HPs and Dells of the world aren't expecting a stellar quarter.On the handset side, Research In Motion could capitalize if iPhone shipments do decline, with the Storm and Bold making their way onto the stage. But it's unlikely that RIM will have a standout quarter itself, given the epic slowdown in business tech spending that usually accompanies one of these recession things.And seven years on, there still doesn't seem to be a major competitor to the iPod. Apple is pushing the iPod into new territory as well, taking on portable gaming systems from the likes of Nintendo and Sony.Apple's ability to post consistently strong growth figures quarter after quarter looks like it's coming to an end. If it's any consolation to fanboys and investors, however, at least it wasn't the company's fault.
NBC chief urges all-hands assault on piracy
NBC chief urges all-hands assault on piracy
He wants alleged intellectual property violations to take center stage at all levels of government, from the White House to U.S. embassies around the world. He wants Congress to create dedicated IP enforcement departments and to offer federal grants for state and local governments to escalate their own policing efforts.He wants advertisers and credit card companies to stop providing "financial support" to Web sites that are "overwhelmingly devoted" to making pirated content available. And he wants Internet service providers, university network operators, user-generated content sites, search engines, auction Web sites and even consumer electronics and home networking device manufacturers to install filtering technologies designed to detect and block unauthorized copyright content. Critics argue that technique is prone to being either over- or underinclusive--or downright ineffective--but Zucker said he's convinced it's an approach worth pursuing.Just as cable companies have helped to combat theft of their signals through encryption, "technology has been and continues to be an incredibly powerful tool to combat theft, whether we are talking about hard goods or digital goods," Zucker said. Such tools will never be perfect, he conceded, "but committed development of technology has the potential to reduce dramatically the traffic in counterfeit and pirated products." In an attempt to illustrate the impact of piracy on the U.S. economy, Zucker touted the "staggering" numbers in a new study released Wednesday by an economist named Stephen Siwek, which found the U.S. economy loses $58 billion and U.S. workers are deprived of nearly 375,000 jobs annually because of global and domestic-based copyright infringement. A copy of that study was not immediately available, so it was unclear how those numbers were derived. The group that released the study, called the Institute for Policy Innovation, has a history of sponsoring pro-Hollywood events.But despite concerns about the Internet as a piracy venue, Zucker said his company has no intention of shying away from the medium. In fact, the General Electric subset intends to continue beefing up investments its digital presence by "ripping apart old business models and pioneering radically new ways of reaching audiences." Take the network's hit comedy sitcom 30 Rock, for example. If viewers miss its broadcast TV airing, they have a multitude of options for watching it later, including in free, streaming form at NBC.com; in free, downloadable form from NBC.com (albeit with a 7-day lifespan); through some cable and satellite on-demand services; and, in a few weeks, through Hulu.com, the new joint digital video venture between NBC and News Corp. (There wasn't a peep about the fall lineup's newfound lack of availability through Apple's iTunes store, though.)"On screens small, medium or large," he said, "we are there wherever or however consumer wants to consume our content."
He wants alleged intellectual property violations to take center stage at all levels of government, from the White House to U.S. embassies around the world. He wants Congress to create dedicated IP enforcement departments and to offer federal grants for state and local governments to escalate their own policing efforts.He wants advertisers and credit card companies to stop providing "financial support" to Web sites that are "overwhelmingly devoted" to making pirated content available. And he wants Internet service providers, university network operators, user-generated content sites, search engines, auction Web sites and even consumer electronics and home networking device manufacturers to install filtering technologies designed to detect and block unauthorized copyright content. Critics argue that technique is prone to being either over- or underinclusive--or downright ineffective--but Zucker said he's convinced it's an approach worth pursuing.Just as cable companies have helped to combat theft of their signals through encryption, "technology has been and continues to be an incredibly powerful tool to combat theft, whether we are talking about hard goods or digital goods," Zucker said. Such tools will never be perfect, he conceded, "but committed development of technology has the potential to reduce dramatically the traffic in counterfeit and pirated products." In an attempt to illustrate the impact of piracy on the U.S. economy, Zucker touted the "staggering" numbers in a new study released Wednesday by an economist named Stephen Siwek, which found the U.S. economy loses $58 billion and U.S. workers are deprived of nearly 375,000 jobs annually because of global and domestic-based copyright infringement. A copy of that study was not immediately available, so it was unclear how those numbers were derived. The group that released the study, called the Institute for Policy Innovation, has a history of sponsoring pro-Hollywood events.But despite concerns about the Internet as a piracy venue, Zucker said his company has no intention of shying away from the medium. In fact, the General Electric subset intends to continue beefing up investments its digital presence by "ripping apart old business models and pioneering radically new ways of reaching audiences." Take the network's hit comedy sitcom 30 Rock, for example. If viewers miss its broadcast TV airing, they have a multitude of options for watching it later, including in free, streaming form at NBC.com; in free, downloadable form from NBC.com (albeit with a 7-day lifespan); through some cable and satellite on-demand services; and, in a few weeks, through Hulu.com, the new joint digital video venture between NBC and News Corp. (There wasn't a peep about the fall lineup's newfound lack of availability through Apple's iTunes store, though.)"On screens small, medium or large," he said, "we are there wherever or however consumer wants to consume our content."
Before you switch to the iPhone
Before you switch to the iPhone
AT&T coverageWithout a doubt, you better make sure that AT&T has adequate coverage in your area. That would include your home, your workplace, and everywhere in-between. If you don't have an AT&T phone now, try borrowing a friend's or colleague's phone and test in the places you frequent. Keep in mind that reception in buildings can vary, but ultimately you'll want to be able to make and receive calls with few problems. This is an absolutely critical step, unless you want to pay a few hundred dollars for a phone that won't work in your living room.Porting your numberIf you want to transfer your phone number over to AT&T, do not cancel your contract with your current provider. If you do so, you'll lose your number and AT&T will assign you a new one. To keep your number, simply open your new account with AT&T. AT&T will notify your carrier and will transfer the number for you. Just keep in mind that the transfer can take a couple of days.Carrier termination feeIf you leave your carrier before your contract has ended, you will be stuck with an early-termination fee. These can range from $150 to $200, so be sure to factor that into the price of your iPhone. Verizon Wireless prorates your fee depending on how much time is left on your contract, but not every provider does the same. Be sure to check if yours does.Pick your planRemember you're signing up for a two-year contract, even if you have already switched to AT&T. New customers will have to choose a special iPhone service plan that will be unique to the phone. For $60 a month, you'll get 450 minutes of anytime minutes and 5,000 night and weekend minutes. For $80 a month, you'll get 900 anytime minutes and unlimited nights and weekends. And for $100 a month, you'll get 1,350 anytime minutes and unlimited nights and weekends. All plans will include visual voice mail access, unlimited e-mail and mobile Web surfing, free mobile-to-mobile minutes and 200 text messages a month. And don't forget the $36 activation fee.Current AT&T customers can add an iPhone data plan to their existing contract for $20 per month, which will give them unlimited data and 200 text messages. More-expensive plans are available as well, and families will have their own options.Try to think carefully beforehand about how many calling and data minutes you'll need. As a general rule, it's better to overestimate your usage rather than underestimating it. You can always adjust your plan later, though that will result in a further extension of your contract. Don't forget taxes and fees either. For a complete list, check out CNET's Quick guide to your cell phone bill.Find a storeThe iPhone will be sold at all Apple stores, but it won't be available at every AT&T location. AT&T franchises won't have it, so you should check before you get in line. AT&T has a handy store locater on its Web site. Also, keep in mind that iPhone goes on sale at 6 p.m., but that stores will vary.ActivationApple announced yesterday that you'll be able to activate the phone at home using iTunes, which, incidentally, you'll need an account for if you want to use the iPhone for anything. Be patientAs the first-generation device, the iPhone will have a break-in period. During that time, there will undoubtedly be some quirks that may be surprising and even frustrating. The touchscreen and the user interface also come with a learning curve, and it doesn't help that the iPhone comes with enormous expectations. Take your time to get to know it, and don't expect too much right away.
AT&T coverageWithout a doubt, you better make sure that AT&T has adequate coverage in your area. That would include your home, your workplace, and everywhere in-between. If you don't have an AT&T phone now, try borrowing a friend's or colleague's phone and test in the places you frequent. Keep in mind that reception in buildings can vary, but ultimately you'll want to be able to make and receive calls with few problems. This is an absolutely critical step, unless you want to pay a few hundred dollars for a phone that won't work in your living room.Porting your numberIf you want to transfer your phone number over to AT&T, do not cancel your contract with your current provider. If you do so, you'll lose your number and AT&T will assign you a new one. To keep your number, simply open your new account with AT&T. AT&T will notify your carrier and will transfer the number for you. Just keep in mind that the transfer can take a couple of days.Carrier termination feeIf you leave your carrier before your contract has ended, you will be stuck with an early-termination fee. These can range from $150 to $200, so be sure to factor that into the price of your iPhone. Verizon Wireless prorates your fee depending on how much time is left on your contract, but not every provider does the same. Be sure to check if yours does.Pick your planRemember you're signing up for a two-year contract, even if you have already switched to AT&T. New customers will have to choose a special iPhone service plan that will be unique to the phone. For $60 a month, you'll get 450 minutes of anytime minutes and 5,000 night and weekend minutes. For $80 a month, you'll get 900 anytime minutes and unlimited nights and weekends. And for $100 a month, you'll get 1,350 anytime minutes and unlimited nights and weekends. All plans will include visual voice mail access, unlimited e-mail and mobile Web surfing, free mobile-to-mobile minutes and 200 text messages a month. And don't forget the $36 activation fee.Current AT&T customers can add an iPhone data plan to their existing contract for $20 per month, which will give them unlimited data and 200 text messages. More-expensive plans are available as well, and families will have their own options.Try to think carefully beforehand about how many calling and data minutes you'll need. As a general rule, it's better to overestimate your usage rather than underestimating it. You can always adjust your plan later, though that will result in a further extension of your contract. Don't forget taxes and fees either. For a complete list, check out CNET's Quick guide to your cell phone bill.Find a storeThe iPhone will be sold at all Apple stores, but it won't be available at every AT&T location. AT&T franchises won't have it, so you should check before you get in line. AT&T has a handy store locater on its Web site. Also, keep in mind that iPhone goes on sale at 6 p.m., but that stores will vary.ActivationApple announced yesterday that you'll be able to activate the phone at home using iTunes, which, incidentally, you'll need an account for if you want to use the iPhone for anything. Be patientAs the first-generation device, the iPhone will have a break-in period. During that time, there will undoubtedly be some quirks that may be surprising and even frustrating. The touchscreen and the user interface also come with a learning curve, and it doesn't help that the iPhone comes with enormous expectations. Take your time to get to know it, and don't expect too much right away.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)